Components of population (de)growth in the municipalities from Vitória da Conquista’s area of influence, 1991 to 2010

Abstract

This paper aims to discuss the demographic dynamics of the municipalities located in Vitória da Conquista’s area of influence, between 1991 and 2010. In this sense, it examines whether the population growth rates presented in the period can be explained only by the vegetative growth (relationship between birth and mortality) and migratory balances or if there is a spurious component in the census statistics of some of these municipalities. The hypothesis of the spurious component is based on complaints made by the Federal Public Ministry in 2009, which pointed to the possible manipulation of the number of inhabitants of the census data in municipalities in the interior of Bahia. The paper shows that some of the municipalities located in direct Vitória da Conquista’s area of influence showed unexpected variations in their population size. Between 1991 and 2000, there was a high rate of demographic growth, followed by sharp declines in the following decade (2000-2010), after the verification of complaints. The components of the demographic dynamics (birth, mortality and migration) for the region were investigated, highlighting the need to consider the occurrence of inaccuracy in the census data (spurious component) so that the levels of growth and / or reduction of these populations better clarified. In the end, the effects of this component on socio-spatial research and analysis were pointed out, as well as for the definition of appropriate socioeconomic indicators for the formulation of public policies for the region.