ELECTORAL RETURN OF THE BOLSA FAMILIA PROGRAM IN THE 2018 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: AN ANALYSIS OF CONDITIONALITIES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22481/rbba.v11i01.10687Keywords:
Bolsa Família Program, Electoral Return, Counties, Non-linearityAbstract
This study investigates the existence of conditions that enhance the electoral return of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF). Therefore, and based on the analysis of Fernando Haddad's vote in each municipality in the second round of the 2018 presidential election, it estimates and evaluates PBF electoral return coefficients for different levels of the Municipal Human Development Index (IDHM). The basic hypothesis is that the electoral return of Bolsa Família is influenced by the IDHM and that there is a possible non-linearity in this return. The objective is to find the IDHM in which the trend reversal of the PBF electoral returns occurs. The study is based on models of electoral cycles, more specifically on the model of electoral control. The coefficients are estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The data are cross section and the sample consists of 5,452 observations. The main results show that there is an inversion in the tendency of the electoral returns of the PBF in relation to the IDHM for the general case, but it is not possible to conclude that the development index of the municipalities influences the returns of the PBF when only municipalities with high participation of families in the program.
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