Crescimento econômico e mercados de ações: uma abordagem PVAR do efeito China na América Latina
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22481/ccsa.v18i31.7885Palavras-chave:
Crise financeira global. América Latina. Mercados acionistas. Efeito China. Crescimento econômico.Resumo
A crise financeira global, desencadeada pelo mercado de hipotecas de alto risco dos Estados Unidos, alastrou-se por todo o mundo, afetando todas as classes de ativos financeiros. A crise causou impactos negativos que ainda hoje têm reflexos nas economias em desenvolvimento. O objetivo deste estudo consiste na análise da relação entre crescimento econômico e a instabilidade causada pela crise financeira nos principais mercados acionistas Latino-Americanos, nomeadamente: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, México e Peru. Verificou-se também, por meio da aplicação da estrutura Pairwise, os efeitos da China nos mercados acionistas e no Produto Interno Bruto dos países Latino-Americanos. A estimação do Panel Vector Autoregressive model permitiu averiguar a existência do “Efeito China” nos países Latino-Americanos. Os resultados suportam a presença de uma forte relação entre Produto Interno Bruto e os valores movimentados no mercado acionista chinês, e o Produto Interno Bruto e os valores movimentados nos mercados acionistas Latino-Americanos.
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